• CMHC projections: Housing starts expected at ~237,800 in 2025 (down from 245,367 in 2024), falling further to 227,734 in 2026 and 220,016 in 2027. Well below the 267,000 average in 2021–22 and far short of the 480,000/year CMHC says are needed.

• Regional drops: B.C. housing starts down 8% and Ontario down 25%, despite high prices in Vancouver and Toronto.

• Contributing factors:

  • High interest rates, labour & material costs, slower population growth

  • Development lags of 10–12+ years due to infrastructure needs

  • Land scarcity, red tape, municipal development charges

  • Weaker pre-sales, investor retreat, developers holding land until market improves

• Economic impact: Fewer builds reduce housing supply, slow economic activity, and could cost governments billions in lost tax revenue (e.g., >$6B loss projected for GTA).

• Political promises vs. reality:

  • Liberals: 500,000 homes/year for 10 years, creation of Build Canada Homes ($35B in financing & capital), GST removal for homes under $1M for first-time buyers, halving municipal development charges for multi-unit builds.

  • Conservatives: Tie infrastructure funding to municipal housing targets, penalize lagging cities, GST removal on new homes up to $1.3M for all buyers.

  • NDP: 3M homes by 2030 under a $16B national housing strategy.

Bottom line: Despite bold political targets, near-term forecasts point to declining construction, worsening affordability, and a growing supply gap.